Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 11:36:05 IST | Fetch: 76.7s | Auto-refresh 10s
$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M | $93.00 | $-7.00 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 50.5% | |
| 15M | $38.50 | $-61.50 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 57.5% | |
| 1H | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4H | $126.50 | +$26.50 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Markov Acc | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50.5% (210) | WAITING | |
| 15M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 57.5% (80) | WAITING | |
| 1H INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% (0) | WAITING |
3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering
Order-2 | Current state = NOW
G→G| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G→R | 58.8% | 41.2% | 51 | |
R→G | 53.8% | 46.2% | 52 | |
R→R | 44.7% | 55.3% | 47 | |
G→G NOW | 42.6% | 57.4% | 47 |
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→G | 54.2% | 45.8% | 48 | |
R→R NOW | 52.7% | 47.3% | 55 | |
G→G | 42.2% | 57.8% | 45 | |
G→R | 37.5% | 62.5% | 48 |
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→R NOW | 69.6% | 30.4% | 46 | |
R→G | 43.6% | 56.4% | 55 | |
G→G | 41.5% | 58.5% | 41 | |
G→R | 40.0% | 60.0% | 55 |
| TF | Strategy | Direction | Bet | Conf | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | MARKOV | GREEN | $25.00 | 75.2% | 2026-07-08 09:30 IST | 2026-07-08 13:30 IST |
| Time | TF | Strat | Type | Bet | Dir | Actual | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 01:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 01:00 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:50 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$9.40 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 00:45 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:35 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | RED | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:30 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:00 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MEAN_REVERT | $10.00 | RED | GREEN | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-07 21:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV_LATE | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| Time | TF | Predicted | Actual | Result | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 11:25 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 56.9% |
| 2026-07-08 11:20 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 53.2% |
| 2026-07-08 11:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 57.7% |
| 2026-07-08 11:10 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 53.4% |
| 2026-07-08 11:05 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 53.1% |
| 2026-07-08 11:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 56.5% |
| 2026-07-08 11:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 62.0% |
| 2026-07-08 10:55 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 56.1% |
| 2026-07-08 10:50 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.6% |
| 2026-07-08 10:45 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.3% |
| 2026-07-08 10:45 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 53.4% |
| 2026-07-08 10:40 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 54.7% |
| 2026-07-08 10:35 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 10:30 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 10:30 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 64.0% |
| 2026-07-08 10:25 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 57.0% |
| 2026-07-08 10:20 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 52.0% |
| 2026-07-08 10:15 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 10:15 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 59.6% |
| 2026-07-08 10:10 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 57.3% |
| 2026-07-08 10:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 57.5% |
| 2026-07-08 10:00 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 56.6% |
| 2026-07-08 10:00 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.4% |
| 2026-07-08 09:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.6% |
| 2026-07-08 09:50 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 57.1% |
| 2026-07-08 09:45 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 55.1% |
| 2026-07-08 09:45 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 56.8% |
| 2026-07-08 09:40 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.6% |
| 2026-07-08 09:35 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 60.2% |
| 2026-07-08 09:30 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 50.8% |
| 2026-07-08 09:30 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 50.6% |
| 2026-07-08 09:25 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 52.0% |
| 2026-07-08 09:20 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 52.0% |
| 2026-07-08 09:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 54.1% |
| 2026-07-08 09:15 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 54.0% |
| 2026-07-08 09:10 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 54.2% |
| 2026-07-08 09:05 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 55.2% |
| 2026-07-08 09:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 53.5% |
| 2026-07-08 09:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 63.5% |
| 2026-07-08 08:55 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 50.7% |