Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 14:18:56 IST | Fetch: 72.4s | Auto-refresh 10s
$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M | $93.00 | $-7.00 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 48.8% | |
| 15M | $38.50 | $-61.50 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 55.8% | |
| 1H | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4H | $150.00 | +$50.00 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 66.7% |
$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Markov Acc | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 48.8% (213) | WAITING | |
| 15M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 55.8% (77) | WAITING | |
| 1H INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% (0) | WAITING |
3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering
Order-2 | Current state = NOW
G→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G→R NOW | 56.0% | 44.0% | 50 | |
R→G | 54.9% | 45.1% | 51 | |
R→R | 46.9% | 53.1% | 49 | |
G→G | 39.1% | 60.9% | 46 |
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→G | 55.3% | 44.7% | 47 | |
R→R NOW | 52.7% | 47.3% | 55 | |
G→G | 44.7% | 55.3% | 47 | |
G→R | 36.2% | 63.8% | 47 |
R→G| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→R | 70.2% | 29.8% | 47 | |
R→G NOW | 44.4% | 55.6% | 54 | |
G→G | 41.5% | 58.5% | 41 | |
G→R | 40.0% | 60.0% | 55 |
| Time | TF | Strat | Type | Bet | Dir | Actual | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 09:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 01:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 01:00 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:50 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$9.40 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 00:45 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:35 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | RED | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:30 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:00 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MEAN_REVERT | $10.00 | RED | GREEN | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-07 21:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV_LATE | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| Time | TF | Predicted | Actual | Result | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 14:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 53.7% |
| 2026-07-08 14:00 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 58.8% |
| 2026-07-08 14:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 62.6% |
| 2026-07-08 13:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.2% |
| 2026-07-08 13:50 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 52.0% |
| 2026-07-08 13:45 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.1% |
| 2026-07-08 13:45 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 62.2% |
| 2026-07-08 13:40 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 55.9% |
| 2026-07-08 13:35 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 62.5% |
| 2026-07-08 13:30 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 62.1% |
| 2026-07-08 13:30 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 70.5% |
| 2026-07-08 13:25 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 62.1% |
| 2026-07-08 13:20 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 52.9% |
| 2026-07-08 13:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 61.1% |
| 2026-07-08 13:15 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 63.5% |
| 2026-07-08 13:10 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 61.8% |
| 2026-07-08 13:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 63.5% |
| 2026-07-08 13:00 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 56.3% |
| 2026-07-08 13:00 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.8% |
| 2026-07-08 12:55 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 55.4% |
| 2026-07-08 12:50 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 52.4% |
| 2026-07-08 12:45 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 58.4% |
| 2026-07-08 12:45 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 55.3% |
| 2026-07-08 12:40 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 56.8% |
| 2026-07-08 12:35 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 65.5% |
| 2026-07-08 12:30 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 54.5% |
| 2026-07-08 12:30 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 60.7% |
| 2026-07-08 12:25 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.2% |
| 2026-07-08 12:20 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 58.6% |
| 2026-07-08 12:15 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 55.8% |
| 2026-07-08 12:15 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-08 12:10 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 52.3% |
| 2026-07-08 12:05 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.0% |
| 2026-07-08 12:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 57.8% |
| 2026-07-08 12:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 56.3% |
| 2026-07-08 11:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-08 11:50 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 53.3% |
| 2026-07-08 11:45 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 52.2% |
| 2026-07-08 11:45 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.4% |
| 2026-07-08 11:40 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 53.6% |