Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 20:31:08 IST | Fetch: 100.9s | Auto-refresh 10s
$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M | $93.00 | $-7.00 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 49.8% | |
| 15M | $38.50 | $-61.50 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 58.9% | |
| 1H | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4H | $173.50 | +$73.50 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 66.7% |
$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Markov Acc | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 49.8% (221) | WAITING | |
| 15M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 58.9% (73) | WAITING | |
| 1H INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% (0) | WAITING |
3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering
Order-2 | Current state = NOW
R→G| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G→R | 55.8% | 44.2% | 52 | |
R→G NOW | 46.2% | 53.8% | 52 | |
R→R | 45.1% | 54.9% | 51 | |
G→G | 42.9% | 57.1% | 42 |
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→G | 54.2% | 45.8% | 48 | |
R→R NOW | 51.9% | 48.1% | 54 | |
G→G | 44.7% | 55.3% | 47 | |
G→R | 41.7% | 58.3% | 48 |
G→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→R | 70.2% | 29.8% | 47 | |
R→G | 44.4% | 55.6% | 54 | |
G→G | 42.9% | 57.1% | 42 | |
G→R NOW | 38.9% | 61.1% | 54 |
| TF | Strategy | Direction | Bet | Conf | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | MARKOV | RED | $25.00 | 56.4% | 2026-07-08 17:30 IST | 2026-07-08 21:30 IST |
| Time | TF | Strat | Type | Bet | Dir | Actual | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 13:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 09:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 01:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 01:00 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:50 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$9.40 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 00:45 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:35 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | RED | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:30 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:00 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MEAN_REVERT | $10.00 | RED | GREEN | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-07 21:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV_LATE | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| Time | TF | Predicted | Actual | Result | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 20:20 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 60.5% |
| 2026-07-08 20:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.0% |
| 2026-07-08 20:10 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 55.5% |
| 2026-07-08 20:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.9% |
| 2026-07-08 20:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 51.6% |
| 2026-07-08 20:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.6% |
| 2026-07-08 19:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 58.5% |
| 2026-07-08 19:50 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 65.8% |
| 2026-07-08 19:45 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 64.2% |
| 2026-07-08 19:45 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 55.8% |
| 2026-07-08 19:40 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 53.6% |
| 2026-07-08 19:35 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.9% |
| 2026-07-08 19:30 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.1% |
| 2026-07-08 19:30 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 59.6% |
| 2026-07-08 19:25 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.0% |
| 2026-07-08 19:20 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 57.9% |
| 2026-07-08 19:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 55.4% |
| 2026-07-08 19:15 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.4% |
| 2026-07-08 19:10 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.9% |
| 2026-07-08 19:05 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.0% |
| 2026-07-08 19:00 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-08 19:00 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 54.7% |
| 2026-07-08 18:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 53.8% |
| 2026-07-08 18:50 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.2% |
| 2026-07-08 18:45 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 18:45 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 57.3% |
| 2026-07-08 18:40 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 57.5% |
| 2026-07-08 18:35 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 62.2% |
| 2026-07-08 18:30 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.5% |
| 2026-07-08 18:30 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 56.5% |
| 2026-07-08 18:25 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 52.5% |
| 2026-07-08 18:20 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 51.5% |
| 2026-07-08 18:15 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 56.0% |
| 2026-07-08 18:15 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 59.6% |
| 2026-07-08 18:10 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 52.4% |
| 2026-07-08 18:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 52.7% |
| 2026-07-08 18:00 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.1% |
| 2026-07-08 18:00 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.0% |
| 2026-07-08 17:55 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.4% |
| 2026-07-08 17:50 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.8% |