terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 07:17:04 IST | Fetch: 75.3s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
50¢
Grand Total
$678.50
Grand P&L
$-21.50
Daily P&L
$-45.00
HC Signals
1/4
Markov Portfolio
$378.50 ($-21.50)
Markov WR
37.5% (8 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%51.4%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%51.8%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$147.00+$47.0022100.0%66.7%
$147.00

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%51.4% (208)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%51.8% (83)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 07:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 07:20 IST
UP: 0.51¢ DOWN: 0.49¢ | 3m47s
RED
Conf: 57.5%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 51.4% (107/208)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:49.5% R:50.5% n=99 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:46.9% R:53.1% n=49 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→R] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=25 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→R→R] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→G→R→R→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:49.5% R:50.5% n=99 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:46.9% R:53.1% n=49 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→RS] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=25 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:49.5% R:50.5% n=99 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:46.9% R:53.1% n=49 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 07:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 07:30 IST
UP: 0.49¢ DOWN: 0.51¢ | 13m24s
RED
Conf: 60.2%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 51.8% (43/83)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:47.6% R:52.4% n=103 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:39.6% R:60.4% n=48 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→R] G:40.9% R:59.1% n=22 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→G→R] G:30.0% R:70.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→R→G→R] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=5 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:47.6% R:52.4% n=103 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:39.6% R:60.4% n=48 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→RS] G:40.9% R:59.1% n=22 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:47.6% R:52.4% n=103 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:39.6% R:60.4% n=48 w=7.5
TRADE

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 05:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 09:30 IST
UP: 0.28¢ DOWN: 0.72¢ | 132m56s
GREEN
Conf: 65.0%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 66.7% (4/6)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:68.8% R:31.2% n=32 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→R→R] G:64.3% R:35.7% n=14 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→G→G→R→R] G:57.1% R:42.9% n=7 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:68.8% R:31.2% n=32 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
G→R52.0%48.0%50
R→G51.0%49.0%49
G→G47.9%52.1%48
R→R NOW46.9%53.1%49

15M Now: G→R

State→G→RN
R→R55.6%44.4%54
R→G53.1%46.9%49
G→G42.2%57.8%45
G→R NOW39.6%60.4%48

4H Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→R NOW71.1%28.9%45
R→G43.6%56.4%55
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R41.1%58.9%56

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVGREEN$25.0065.0%2026-07-08 05:30 IST2026-07-08 09:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 07:05 IST5MREDRED✓59.1%
2026-07-08 07:00 IST5MGREENRED✗56.0%
2026-07-08 06:55 IST5MREDRED✓50.8%
2026-07-08 06:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.8%
2026-07-08 06:45 IST5MREDRED✓55.8%
2026-07-08 06:45 IST15MREDRED✓58.6%
2026-07-08 06:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗59.0%
2026-07-08 06:35 IST5MGREENRED✗50.4%
2026-07-08 06:30 IST15MREDGREEN✗63.5%
2026-07-08 06:30 IST5MGREENRED✗59.3%
2026-07-08 06:25 IST5MGREENRED✗51.8%
2026-07-08 06:20 IST5MREDRED✓51.3%
2026-07-08 06:15 IST15MGREENRED✗50.0%
2026-07-08 06:15 IST5MREDRED✓51.8%
2026-07-08 06:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.5%
2026-07-08 06:05 IST5MGREENGREEN✓50.3%
2026-07-08 06:00 IST5MGREENRED✗50.3%
2026-07-08 06:00 IST15MGREENGREEN✓54.9%
2026-07-08 05:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓58.1%
2026-07-08 05:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.1%
2026-07-08 05:45 IST5MGREENRED✗57.9%
2026-07-08 05:45 IST15MGREENGREEN✓53.0%
2026-07-08 05:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.5%
2026-07-08 05:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗54.9%
2026-07-08 05:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.3%
2026-07-08 05:30 IST15MREDGREEN✗55.8%
2026-07-08 05:25 IST5MREDRED✓52.6%
2026-07-08 05:20 IST5MREDRED✓50.4%
2026-07-08 05:15 IST5MGREENRED✗50.9%
2026-07-08 05:15 IST15MGREENRED✗50.0%
2026-07-08 05:10 IST5MREDRED✓54.2%
2026-07-08 05:05 IST5MGREENRED✗51.5%
2026-07-08 05:00 IST5MGREENRED✗59.0%
2026-07-08 05:00 IST15MREDRED✓53.2%
2026-07-08 04:55 IST5MREDGREEN✗54.2%
2026-07-08 04:50 IST5MREDRED✓54.6%
2026-07-08 04:45 IST5MREDGREEN✗58.6%
2026-07-08 04:45 IST15MREDGREEN✗60.5%
2026-07-08 04:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.1%
2026-07-08 04:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.0%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 07:17:04 IST