Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 07:17:04 IST | Fetch: 75.3s | Auto-refresh 10s
$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M | $93.00 | $-7.00 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 51.4% | |
| 15M | $38.50 | $-61.50 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 51.8% | |
| 1H | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4H | $147.00 | +$47.00 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 66.7% |
$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong
| TF | Bankroll | P&L | Trades | Wins | Win Rate | Markov Acc | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 51.4% (208) | WAITING | |
| 15M INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 51.8% (83) | WAITING | |
| 1H INV | $100.00 | +$0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% (0) | WAITING |
3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering
Order-2 | Current state = NOW
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G→R | 52.0% | 48.0% | 50 | |
R→G | 51.0% | 49.0% | 49 | |
G→G | 47.9% | 52.1% | 48 | |
R→R NOW | 46.9% | 53.1% | 49 |
G→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→R | 55.6% | 44.4% | 54 | |
R→G | 53.1% | 46.9% | 49 | |
G→G | 42.2% | 57.8% | 45 | |
G→R NOW | 39.6% | 60.4% | 48 |
R→R| State | →G | →R | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R→R NOW | 71.1% | 28.9% | 45 | |
R→G | 43.6% | 56.4% | 55 | |
G→G | 41.5% | 58.5% | 41 | |
G→R | 41.1% | 58.9% | 56 |
| TF | Strategy | Direction | Bet | Conf | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H | MARKOV | GREEN | $25.00 | 65.0% | 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 2026-07-08 09:30 IST |
| Time | TF | Strat | Type | Bet | Dir | Actual | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 01:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 01:00 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:50 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | GREEN | +$9.40 | WIN |
| 2026-07-08 00:45 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | RED | GREEN | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:35 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $10.00 | GREEN | RED | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:30 IST | 15M | MARKOV | MARKOV | $25.00 | GREEN | RED | -$20.50 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-08 00:00 IST | 5M | MARKOV | MEAN_REVERT | $10.00 | RED | GREEN | -$8.20 | LOSS |
| 2026-07-07 21:30 IST | 4H | MARKOV | MARKOV_LATE | $25.00 | RED | RED | +$23.50 | WIN |
| Time | TF | Predicted | Actual | Result | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 07:05 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 59.1% |
| 2026-07-08 07:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 56.0% |
| 2026-07-08 06:55 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.8% |
| 2026-07-08 06:50 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 55.8% |
| 2026-07-08 06:45 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 55.8% |
| 2026-07-08 06:45 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 58.6% |
| 2026-07-08 06:40 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 59.0% |
| 2026-07-08 06:35 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.4% |
| 2026-07-08 06:30 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 63.5% |
| 2026-07-08 06:30 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.3% |
| 2026-07-08 06:25 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.8% |
| 2026-07-08 06:20 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.3% |
| 2026-07-08 06:15 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.0% |
| 2026-07-08 06:15 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 51.8% |
| 2026-07-08 06:10 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 52.5% |
| 2026-07-08 06:05 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 06:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.3% |
| 2026-07-08 06:00 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 54.9% |
| 2026-07-08 05:55 IST | 5M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 58.1% |
| 2026-07-08 05:50 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 50.1% |
| 2026-07-08 05:45 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 57.9% |
| 2026-07-08 05:45 IST | 15M | GREEN | GREEN | ✓ | 53.0% |
| 2026-07-08 05:40 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.5% |
| 2026-07-08 05:35 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 54.9% |
| 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 52.3% |
| 2026-07-08 05:30 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 55.8% |
| 2026-07-08 05:25 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 52.6% |
| 2026-07-08 05:20 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 50.4% |
| 2026-07-08 05:15 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.9% |
| 2026-07-08 05:15 IST | 15M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 50.0% |
| 2026-07-08 05:10 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 54.2% |
| 2026-07-08 05:05 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 51.5% |
| 2026-07-08 05:00 IST | 5M | GREEN | RED | ✗ | 59.0% |
| 2026-07-08 05:00 IST | 15M | RED | RED | ✓ | 53.2% |
| 2026-07-08 04:55 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 54.2% |
| 2026-07-08 04:50 IST | 5M | RED | RED | ✓ | 54.6% |
| 2026-07-08 04:45 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 58.6% |
| 2026-07-08 04:45 IST | 15M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 60.5% |
| 2026-07-08 04:40 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 55.1% |
| 2026-07-08 04:35 IST | 5M | RED | GREEN | ✗ | 51.0% |