terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 18:18:58 IST | Fetch: 72.4s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
54¢
Grand Total
$705.00
Grand P&L
+$5.00
Daily P&L
$-18.50
HC Signals
0/4
Markov Portfolio
$405.00 (+$5.00)
Markov WR
45.5% (11 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%49.5%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%56.2%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$173.50+$73.505480.0%75.0%
$173.50

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%49.5% (220)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%56.2% (73)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 18:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 18:20 IST
UP: 0.54¢ DOWN: 0.47¢ | 1m52s
RED
Conf: 56.0%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 49.5% (109/220)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:52.5% R:47.5% n=99 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:45.7% R:54.3% n=46 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:38.1% R:61.9% n=21 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→G→R→R] G:41.7% R:58.3% n=12 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→G→R→R] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=9 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:52.5% R:47.5% n=99 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:45.7% R:54.3% n=46 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:38.1% R:61.9% n=21 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:52.5% R:47.5% n=99 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:45.7% R:54.3% n=46 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 18:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 18:30 IST
UP: 0.46¢ DOWN: 0.55¢ | 11m28s
RED
Conf: 56.4%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 56.2% (41/73)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=102 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:52.8% R:47.2% n=53 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:42.9% R:57.1% n=28 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→G→R→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=12 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→G→R→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=102 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:52.8% R:47.2% n=53 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:42.9% R:57.1% n=28 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=102 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:52.8% R:47.2% n=53 w=7.5
SKIP

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 17:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 21:30 IST
UP: 0.38¢ DOWN: 0.62¢ | 191m3s
RED
Conf: 56.4%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 75.0% (3/4)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:40.7% R:59.3% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→R] G:43.3% R:56.7% n=30 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→G→R] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=18 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→R→R→G→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:40.7% R:59.3% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→RS] G:43.3% R:56.7% n=30 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:40.7% R:59.3% n=54 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
G→R58.5%41.5%53
R→G50.0%50.0%52
R→R NOW45.7%54.3%46
G→G42.2%57.8%45

15M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→G56.2%43.8%48
R→R NOW52.8%47.2%53
G→G43.8%56.2%48
G→R39.6%60.4%48

4H Now: G→R

State→G→RN
R→R70.2%29.8%47
R→G43.6%56.4%55
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R NOW40.7%59.3%54

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 13:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 09:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENGREEN+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 05:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 18:10 IST5MGREENRED✗52.4%
2026-07-08 18:05 IST5MREDRED✓52.7%
2026-07-08 18:00 IST15MGREENRED✗50.1%
2026-07-08 18:00 IST5MREDRED✓51.0%
2026-07-08 17:55 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.4%
2026-07-08 17:50 IST5MGREENRED✗51.8%
2026-07-08 17:45 IST15MREDRED✓63.1%
2026-07-08 17:45 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.8%
2026-07-08 17:40 IST5MGREENRED✗50.1%
2026-07-08 17:35 IST5MGREENGREEN✓50.3%
2026-07-08 17:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓52.3%
2026-07-08 17:30 IST5MGREENRED✗52.6%
2026-07-08 17:25 IST5MREDRED✓52.2%
2026-07-08 17:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓55.7%
2026-07-08 17:15 IST5MREDRED✓58.4%
2026-07-08 17:15 IST15MGREENRED✗50.7%
2026-07-08 17:10 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.0%
2026-07-08 17:05 IST5MREDRED✓55.0%
2026-07-08 17:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.2%
2026-07-08 17:00 IST15MREDGREEN✗59.5%
2026-07-08 16:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓54.8%
2026-07-08 16:50 IST5MREDRED✓57.6%
2026-07-08 16:45 IST5MGREENGREEN✓61.8%
2026-07-08 16:45 IST15MREDGREEN✗58.7%
2026-07-08 16:40 IST5MREDRED✓57.0%
2026-07-08 16:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗57.0%
2026-07-08 16:30 IST5MREDRED✓56.9%
2026-07-08 16:30 IST15MGREENRED✗54.6%
2026-07-08 16:25 IST5MGREENGREEN✓53.9%
2026-07-08 16:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓53.8%
2026-07-08 16:15 IST5MREDGREEN✗57.2%
2026-07-08 16:15 IST15MGREENGREEN✓60.1%
2026-07-08 16:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗60.3%
2026-07-08 16:05 IST5MREDRED✓73.7%
2026-07-08 16:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗73.7%
2026-07-08 16:00 IST15MGREENGREEN✓50.7%
2026-07-08 15:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.9%
2026-07-08 15:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.5%
2026-07-08 15:45 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.5%
2026-07-08 15:45 IST15MREDGREEN✗64.2%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 18:18:58 IST