terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 09:22:26 IST | Fetch: 73.8s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
18¢
Grand Total
$678.50
Grand P&L
$-21.50
Daily P&L
$-45.00
HC Signals
1/4
Markov Portfolio
$378.50 ($-21.50)
Markov WR
37.5% (8 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%49.5%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%56.1%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$147.00+$47.0022100.0%60.0%
$147.00

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%49.5% (210)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%56.1% (82)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 09:20 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 09:25 IST
UP: 0.18¢ DOWN: 0.81¢ | 3m22s
RED
Conf: 52.0%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 40.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 49.5% (104/210)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=98 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→R] G:45.8% R:54.2% n=24 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→G→R] G:30.8% R:69.2% n=13 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→R→G→R] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=98 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→RS] G:45.8% R:54.2% n=24 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=98 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 09:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 09:30 IST
UP: 0.38¢ DOWN: 0.62¢ | 7m56s
GREEN
Conf: 50.7%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 40.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 56.1% (46/82)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=104 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:53.7% R:46.3% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:48.3% R:51.7% n=29 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→R→R] G:60.0% R:40.0% n=15 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→G→R→R] G:42.9% R:57.1% n=7 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=104 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:53.7% R:46.3% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:48.3% R:51.7% n=29 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:47.1% R:52.9% n=104 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:53.7% R:46.3% n=54 w=7.5
TRADE

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 05:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 09:30 IST
UP: 0.00¢ DOWN: 1.00¢ | 7m34s
GREEN
Conf: 65.0%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 60.0% (3/5)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:68.8% R:31.2% n=32 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→R→R] G:64.3% R:35.7% n=14 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→G→G→R→R] G:57.1% R:42.9% n=7 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:68.8% R:31.2% n=32 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:54.5% R:45.5% n=101 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:71.1% R:28.9% n=45 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: G→R

State→G→RN
G→R NOW56.0%44.0%50
R→G50.0%50.0%50
G→G45.8%54.2%48
R→R45.8%54.2%48

15M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→R NOW53.7%46.3%54
R→G53.1%46.9%49
G→G42.2%57.8%45
G→R38.8%61.2%49

4H Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→R NOW71.1%28.9%45
R→G43.6%56.4%55
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R41.1%58.9%56

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVGREEN$25.0065.0%2026-07-08 05:30 IST2026-07-08 09:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 09:10 IST5MREDRED✓54.2%
2026-07-08 09:05 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.2%
2026-07-08 09:00 IST5MGREENRED✗53.5%
2026-07-08 09:00 IST15MREDRED✓63.5%
2026-07-08 08:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓50.7%
2026-07-08 08:50 IST5MGREENGREEN✓52.1%
2026-07-08 08:45 IST5MREDRED✓53.3%
2026-07-08 08:45 IST15MREDRED✓51.6%
2026-07-08 08:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.4%
2026-07-08 08:35 IST5MGREENRED✗62.3%
2026-07-08 08:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓53.8%
2026-07-08 08:30 IST5MGREENGREEN✓62.3%
2026-07-08 08:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗57.0%
2026-07-08 08:20 IST5MGREENRED✗51.0%
2026-07-08 08:15 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.3%
2026-07-08 08:15 IST15MGREENGREEN✓55.6%
2026-07-08 08:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.3%
2026-07-08 08:05 IST5MREDGREEN✗59.9%
2026-07-08 08:00 IST5MGREENRED✗51.7%
2026-07-08 08:00 IST15MGREENGREEN✓57.5%
2026-07-08 07:55 IST5MGREENRED✗50.5%
2026-07-08 07:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗54.5%
2026-07-08 07:45 IST5MREDRED✓60.7%
2026-07-08 07:45 IST15MGREENRED✗57.2%
2026-07-08 07:40 IST5MGREENGREEN✓56.4%
2026-07-08 07:35 IST5MGREENRED✗56.4%
2026-07-08 07:30 IST5MGREENRED✗55.7%
2026-07-08 07:30 IST15MREDRED✓52.2%
2026-07-08 07:25 IST5MGREENRED✗59.7%
2026-07-08 07:20 IST5MREDRED✓54.0%
2026-07-08 07:15 IST5MREDGREEN✗57.5%
2026-07-08 07:15 IST15MREDRED✓60.2%
2026-07-08 07:10 IST5MGREENGREEN✓50.6%
2026-07-08 07:05 IST5MREDRED✓59.1%
2026-07-08 07:00 IST5MGREENRED✗56.0%
2026-07-08 07:00 IST15MREDRED✓51.1%
2026-07-08 06:55 IST5MREDRED✓50.8%
2026-07-08 06:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.8%
2026-07-08 06:45 IST5MREDRED✓55.8%
2026-07-08 06:45 IST15MREDRED✓58.6%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 09:22:26 IST