terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 14:18:56 IST | Fetch: 72.4s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
100¢
Grand Total
$681.50
Grand P&L
$-18.50
Daily P&L
$-42.00
HC Signals
0/4
Markov Portfolio
$381.50 ($-18.50)
Markov WR
40.0% (10 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%48.8%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%55.8%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$150.00+$50.004375.0%66.7%
$150.00

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%48.8% (213)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%55.8% (77)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 14:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 14:20 IST
UP: 0.99¢ DOWN: 0.01¢ | 1m53s
GREEN
Conf: 58.9%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 80.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 48.8% (104/213)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=100 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→R] G:45.5% R:54.5% n=22 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→G→R] G:62.5% R:37.5% n=8 w=7.2
Simple-5 [R→R→R→G→R] G:100.0% R:0% n=4 w=7.5
Extended-1 [RS] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=100 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→RS] G:45.5% R:54.5% n=22 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:51.0% R:49.0% n=100 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:56.0% R:44.0% n=50 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 14:15 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 14:30 IST
UP: 0.55¢ DOWN: 0.46¢ | 11m27s
RED
Conf: 52.1%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 60.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 55.8% (43/77)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:45.6% R:54.4% n=103 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:44.8% R:55.2% n=29 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→R→R] G:56.2% R:43.8% n=16 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→G→R→R] G:37.5% R:62.5% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:45.6% R:54.4% n=103 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:44.8% R:55.2% n=29 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:45.6% R:54.4% n=103 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=7.5
SKIP

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 13:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 17:30 IST
UP: 0.08¢ DOWN: 0.92¢ | 191m5s
RED
Conf: 55.8%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 66.7% (4/6)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→G] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→G] G:43.8% R:56.2% n=32 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→R→G] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→R→R→G] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→GB] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→GB] G:43.8% R:56.2% n=32 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→GBL] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: G→R

State→G→RN
G→R NOW56.0%44.0%50
R→G54.9%45.1%51
R→R46.9%53.1%49
G→G39.1%60.9%46

15M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→G55.3%44.7%47
R→R NOW52.7%47.3%55
G→G44.7%55.3%47
G→R36.2%63.8%47

4H Now: R→G

State→G→RN
R→R70.2%29.8%47
R→G NOW44.4%55.6%54
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R40.0%60.0%55

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 09:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENGREEN+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 05:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 14:05 IST5MREDRED✓53.7%
2026-07-08 14:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗58.8%
2026-07-08 14:00 IST15MREDRED✓62.6%
2026-07-08 13:55 IST5MREDRED✓51.2%
2026-07-08 13:50 IST5MREDRED✓52.0%
2026-07-08 13:45 IST5MREDRED✓51.1%
2026-07-08 13:45 IST15MREDRED✓62.2%
2026-07-08 13:40 IST5MGREENRED✗55.9%
2026-07-08 13:35 IST5MGREENRED✗62.5%
2026-07-08 13:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗62.1%
2026-07-08 13:30 IST15MREDRED✓70.5%
2026-07-08 13:25 IST5MREDRED✓62.1%
2026-07-08 13:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓52.9%
2026-07-08 13:15 IST5MGREENGREEN✓61.1%
2026-07-08 13:15 IST15MREDGREEN✗63.5%
2026-07-08 13:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗61.8%
2026-07-08 13:05 IST5MREDRED✓63.5%
2026-07-08 13:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗56.3%
2026-07-08 13:00 IST15MREDGREEN✗51.8%
2026-07-08 12:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓55.4%
2026-07-08 12:50 IST5MGREENGREEN✓52.4%
2026-07-08 12:45 IST5MGREENRED✗58.4%
2026-07-08 12:45 IST15MGREENGREEN✓55.3%
2026-07-08 12:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗56.8%
2026-07-08 12:35 IST5MGREENGREEN✓65.5%
2026-07-08 12:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓54.5%
2026-07-08 12:30 IST5MREDRED✓60.7%
2026-07-08 12:25 IST5MGREENRED✗51.2%
2026-07-08 12:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓58.6%
2026-07-08 12:15 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.8%
2026-07-08 12:15 IST15MREDGREEN✗53.8%
2026-07-08 12:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.3%
2026-07-08 12:05 IST5MGREENRED✗59.0%
2026-07-08 12:00 IST5MGREENRED✗57.8%
2026-07-08 12:00 IST15MREDRED✓56.3%
2026-07-08 11:55 IST5MREDRED✓53.8%
2026-07-08 11:50 IST5MGREENGREEN✓53.3%
2026-07-08 11:45 IST5MREDRED✓52.2%
2026-07-08 11:45 IST15MGREENRED✗59.4%
2026-07-08 11:40 IST5MGREENRED✗53.6%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 14:18:56 IST