terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 11:36:05 IST | Fetch: 76.7s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
50¢
Grand Total
$658.00
Grand P&L
$-42.00
Daily P&L
$-65.50
HC Signals
1/4
Markov Portfolio
$358.00 ($-42.00)
Markov WR
33.3% (9 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%50.5%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%57.5%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$126.50+$26.503266.7%66.7%
$126.50

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%50.5% (210)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%57.5% (80)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 11:35 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 11:40 IST
UP: 0.51¢ DOWN: 0.49¢ | 4m47s
GREEN
Conf: 53.9%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 20.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 50.5% (106/210)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:48.5% R:51.5% n=99 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→G] G:42.6% R:57.4% n=47 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→G] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=27 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→G→G] G:72.7% R:27.3% n=11 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→R→R→G→G] G:80.0% R:20.0% n=5 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:48.5% R:51.5% n=99 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→GB] G:42.6% R:57.4% n=47 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→GB] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=27 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:48.5% R:51.5% n=99 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→GBL] G:42.6% R:57.4% n=47 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 11:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 11:45 IST
UP: 0.39¢ DOWN: 0.61¢ | 9m23s
GREEN
Conf: 54.3%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 60.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 57.5% (46/80)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=104 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→R] G:60.0% R:40.0% n=25 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→R→R] G:60.0% R:40.0% n=15 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→G→R→R→R] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=104 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→RS] G:60.0% R:40.0% n=25 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=104 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:52.7% R:47.3% n=55 w=7.5
TRADE

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 09:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 13:30 IST
UP: 0.36¢ DOWN: 0.64¢ | 113m55s
GREEN
Conf: 75.2%
RANGING Session: ASIA Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 66.7% (4/6)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:69.6% R:30.4% n=46 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→R] G:76.9% R:23.1% n=13 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→R→R] G:80.0% R:20.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→R→R→R] G:100.0% R:0% n=5 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:69.6% R:30.4% n=46 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→RS] G:76.9% R:23.1% n=13 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:53.9% R:46.1% n=102 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:69.6% R:30.4% n=46 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: G→G

State→G→RN
G→R58.8%41.2%51
R→G53.8%46.2%52
R→R44.7%55.3%47
G→G NOW42.6%57.4%47

15M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→G54.2%45.8%48
R→R NOW52.7%47.3%55
G→G42.2%57.8%45
G→R37.5%62.5%48

4H Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→R NOW69.6%30.4%46
R→G43.6%56.4%55
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R40.0%60.0%55

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVGREEN$25.0075.2%2026-07-08 09:30 IST2026-07-08 13:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 05:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 11:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗56.9%
2026-07-08 11:20 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.2%
2026-07-08 11:15 IST5MGREENRED✗57.7%
2026-07-08 11:10 IST5MGREENRED✗53.4%
2026-07-08 11:05 IST5MGREENRED✗53.1%
2026-07-08 11:00 IST5MGREENGREEN✓56.5%
2026-07-08 11:00 IST15MREDRED✓62.0%
2026-07-08 10:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓56.1%
2026-07-08 10:50 IST5MREDRED✓51.6%
2026-07-08 10:45 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.3%
2026-07-08 10:45 IST15MREDRED✓53.4%
2026-07-08 10:40 IST5MGREENRED✗54.7%
2026-07-08 10:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.3%
2026-07-08 10:30 IST5MREDRED✓50.3%
2026-07-08 10:30 IST15MREDRED✓64.0%
2026-07-08 10:25 IST5MGREENGREEN✓57.0%
2026-07-08 10:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓52.0%
2026-07-08 10:15 IST15MGREENGREEN✓50.3%
2026-07-08 10:15 IST5MREDRED✓59.6%
2026-07-08 10:10 IST5MGREENGREEN✓57.3%
2026-07-08 10:05 IST5MREDRED✓57.5%
2026-07-08 10:00 IST5MREDRED✓56.6%
2026-07-08 10:00 IST15MGREENRED✗59.4%
2026-07-08 09:55 IST5MREDRED✓51.6%
2026-07-08 09:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗57.1%
2026-07-08 09:45 IST5MGREENGREEN✓55.1%
2026-07-08 09:45 IST15MGREENGREEN✓56.8%
2026-07-08 09:40 IST5MREDRED✓50.6%
2026-07-08 09:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗60.2%
2026-07-08 09:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.8%
2026-07-08 09:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓50.6%
2026-07-08 09:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.0%
2026-07-08 09:20 IST5MREDRED✓52.0%
2026-07-08 09:15 IST5MGREENRED✗54.1%
2026-07-08 09:15 IST15MREDRED✓54.0%
2026-07-08 09:10 IST5MREDRED✓54.2%
2026-07-08 09:05 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.2%
2026-07-08 09:00 IST5MGREENRED✗53.5%
2026-07-08 09:00 IST15MREDRED✓63.5%
2026-07-08 08:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓50.7%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 11:36:05 IST