terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 20:31:08 IST | Fetch: 100.9s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
50¢
Grand Total
$705.00
Grand P&L
+$5.00
Daily P&L
$-18.50
HC Signals
0/4
Markov Portfolio
$405.00 (+$5.00)
Markov WR
45.5% (11 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%49.8%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%58.9%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$173.50+$73.505480.0%66.7%
$173.50

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%49.8% (221)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%58.9% (73)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 20:25 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 20:30 IST
UP: 0.01¢ DOWN: 0.99¢ | 0m10s
GREEN
Conf: 54.1%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 20.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 49.8% (110/221)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:44.7% R:55.3% n=94 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→G] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=52 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→G] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=22 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→R→G] G:57.1% R:42.9% n=14 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→R→R→G] G:83.3% R:16.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:44.7% R:55.3% n=94 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→GB] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=52 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→GB] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=22 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:44.7% R:55.3% n=94 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→GBL] G:46.2% R:53.8% n=52 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 20:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 20:45 IST
UP: 0.52¢ DOWN: 0.48¢ | 14m41s
RED
Conf: 58.0%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 58.9% (43/73)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:46.6% R:53.4% n=103 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→R] G:51.9% R:48.1% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→R] G:40.7% R:59.3% n=27 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→G→R→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=12 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→G→R→R] G:28.6% R:71.4% n=7 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:46.6% R:53.4% n=103 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→RS] G:51.9% R:48.1% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→RS] G:40.7% R:59.3% n=27 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:46.6% R:53.4% n=103 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→RSL] G:51.9% R:48.1% n=54 w=7.5
SKIP

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 17:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 21:30 IST
UP: 0.14¢ DOWN: 0.86¢ | 58m52s
RED
Conf: 57.5%
RANGING Session: NY Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 66.7% (2/3)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:53.5% R:46.5% n=101 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:38.9% R:61.1% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→G→R] G:41.4% R:58.6% n=29 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→G→R] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=18 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→R→R→G→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:53.5% R:46.5% n=101 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:38.9% R:61.1% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→GB→RS] G:41.4% R:58.6% n=29 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:53.5% R:46.5% n=101 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:38.9% R:61.1% n=54 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: R→G

State→G→RN
G→R55.8%44.2%52
R→G NOW46.2%53.8%52
R→R45.1%54.9%51
G→G42.9%57.1%42

15M Now: R→R

State→G→RN
R→G54.2%45.8%48
R→R NOW51.9%48.1%54
G→G44.7%55.3%47
G→R41.7%58.3%48

4H Now: G→R

State→G→RN
R→R70.2%29.8%47
R→G44.4%55.6%54
G→G42.9%57.1%42
G→R NOW38.9%61.1%54

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVRED$25.0056.4%2026-07-08 17:30 IST2026-07-08 21:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 13:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 09:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENGREEN+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 05:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 20:20 IST5MREDGREEN✗60.5%
2026-07-08 20:15 IST5MGREENRED✗50.0%
2026-07-08 20:10 IST5MREDRED✓55.5%
2026-07-08 20:05 IST5MREDRED✓51.9%
2026-07-08 20:00 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.6%
2026-07-08 20:00 IST15MREDRED✓50.6%
2026-07-08 19:55 IST5MREDRED✓58.5%
2026-07-08 19:50 IST5MGREENGREEN✓65.8%
2026-07-08 19:45 IST5MREDRED✓64.2%
2026-07-08 19:45 IST15MREDRED✓55.8%
2026-07-08 19:40 IST5MGREENRED✗53.6%
2026-07-08 19:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.9%
2026-07-08 19:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.1%
2026-07-08 19:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓59.6%
2026-07-08 19:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.0%
2026-07-08 19:20 IST5MREDRED✓57.9%
2026-07-08 19:15 IST5MGREENRED✗55.4%
2026-07-08 19:15 IST15MGREENRED✗59.4%
2026-07-08 19:10 IST5MREDRED✓50.9%
2026-07-08 19:05 IST5MGREENRED✗51.0%
2026-07-08 19:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.8%
2026-07-08 19:00 IST15MGREENGREEN✓54.7%
2026-07-08 18:55 IST5MREDRED✓53.8%
2026-07-08 18:50 IST5MREDRED✓50.2%
2026-07-08 18:45 IST5MREDRED✓50.3%
2026-07-08 18:45 IST15MGREENRED✗57.3%
2026-07-08 18:40 IST5MREDRED✓57.5%
2026-07-08 18:35 IST5MGREENGREEN✓62.2%
2026-07-08 18:30 IST5MGREENRED✗51.5%
2026-07-08 18:30 IST15MREDRED✓56.5%
2026-07-08 18:25 IST5MGREENRED✗52.5%
2026-07-08 18:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.5%
2026-07-08 18:15 IST5MREDRED✓56.0%
2026-07-08 18:15 IST15MREDRED✓59.6%
2026-07-08 18:10 IST5MGREENRED✗52.4%
2026-07-08 18:05 IST5MREDRED✓52.7%
2026-07-08 18:00 IST15MGREENRED✗50.1%
2026-07-08 18:00 IST5MREDRED✓51.0%
2026-07-08 17:55 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.4%
2026-07-08 17:50 IST5MGREENRED✗51.8%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 20:31:08 IST