terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 16:13:30 IST | Fetch: 95.9s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
54¢
Grand Total
$681.50
Grand P&L
$-18.50
Daily P&L
$-42.00
HC Signals
0/4
Markov Portfolio
$381.50 ($-18.50)
Markov WR
40.0% (10 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%47.4%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%56.6%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$150.00+$50.004375.0%80.0%
$150.00

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%47.4% (215)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%56.6% (76)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 16:10 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 16:15 IST
UP: 0.54¢ DOWN: 0.47¢ | 2m40s
RED
Conf: 57.3%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 88.9%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 47.4% (102/215)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→G] G:42.2% R:57.8% n=45 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→G→G] G:27.8% R:72.2% n=18 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→G→G] G:75.0% R:25.0% n=4 w=6.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→GB] G:42.2% R:57.8% n=45 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→GB→GB] G:27.8% R:72.2% n=18 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→GBL] G:42.2% R:57.8% n=45 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 16:00 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 16:15 IST
UP: 0.84¢ DOWN: 0.15¢ | 2m13s
GREEN
Conf: 60.1%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 56.6% (43/76)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:50.5% R:49.5% n=93 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→G] G:56.5% R:43.5% n=46 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→G] G:62.1% R:37.9% n=29 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→R→R→G] G:58.3% R:41.7% n=12 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→R→R→G] G:75.0% R:25.0% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:50.5% R:49.5% n=93 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→GB] G:56.5% R:43.5% n=46 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→GB] G:62.1% R:37.9% n=29 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:50.5% R:49.5% n=93 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→GBL] G:56.5% R:43.5% n=46 w=7.5
SKIP

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 13:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 17:30 IST
UP: 0.01¢ DOWN: 0.99¢ | 76m31s
RED
Conf: 55.8%
RANGING Session: LONDON Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 80.0% (4/5)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→G] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=4.5
Simple-3 [R→R→G] G:43.8% R:56.2% n=32 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→R→R→G] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→R→R→R→G] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=8 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→GB] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=6.0
Extended-3 [RS→RS→GB] G:43.8% R:56.2% n=32 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:42.7% R:57.3% n=96 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→GBL] G:44.4% R:55.6% n=54 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: G→G

State→G→RN
R→G55.1%44.9%49
G→R53.1%46.9%49
R→R43.4%56.6%53
G→G NOW42.2%57.8%45

15M Now: R→G

State→G→RN
R→G NOW56.5%43.5%46
R→R51.7%48.3%58
G→G44.7%55.3%47
G→R37.0%63.0%46

4H Now: R→G

State→G→RN
R→R70.2%29.8%47
R→G NOW44.4%55.6%54
G→G41.5%58.5%41
G→R40.0%60.0%55

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVRED$25.0055.8%2026-07-08 13:30 IST2026-07-08 17:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 09:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENGREEN+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 05:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 01:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 16:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗73.7%
2026-07-08 15:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.9%
2026-07-08 15:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.5%
2026-07-08 15:45 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.5%
2026-07-08 15:45 IST15MREDGREEN✗64.2%
2026-07-08 15:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗59.1%
2026-07-08 15:35 IST5MREDRED✓55.9%
2026-07-08 15:30 IST15MGREENRED✗52.6%
2026-07-08 15:30 IST5MREDRED✓55.9%
2026-07-08 15:25 IST5MREDRED✓54.0%
2026-07-08 15:20 IST5MGREENRED✗62.7%
2026-07-08 15:15 IST15MGREENRED✗57.8%
2026-07-08 15:15 IST5MGREENRED✗62.6%
2026-07-08 15:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗67.8%
2026-07-08 15:05 IST5MGREENRED✗59.7%
2026-07-08 15:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.5%
2026-07-08 15:00 IST15MGREENGREEN✓54.8%
2026-07-08 14:55 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.5%
2026-07-08 14:50 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.4%
2026-07-08 14:45 IST5MGREENRED✗60.1%
2026-07-08 14:45 IST15MGREENGREEN✓53.3%
2026-07-08 14:40 IST5MREDRED✓57.8%
2026-07-08 14:35 IST5MREDRED✓57.8%
2026-07-08 14:30 IST5MGREENGREEN✓56.5%
2026-07-08 14:30 IST15MGREENRED✗57.8%
2026-07-08 14:25 IST5MREDRED✓62.1%
2026-07-08 14:20 IST5MREDRED✓50.4%
2026-07-08 14:15 IST5MGREENGREEN✓58.9%
2026-07-08 14:15 IST15MREDRED✓52.1%
2026-07-08 14:10 IST5MGREENGREEN✓54.7%
2026-07-08 14:05 IST5MREDRED✓53.7%
2026-07-08 14:00 IST5MREDGREEN✗58.8%
2026-07-08 14:00 IST15MREDRED✓62.6%
2026-07-08 13:55 IST5MREDRED✓51.2%
2026-07-08 13:50 IST5MREDRED✓52.0%
2026-07-08 13:45 IST5MREDRED✓51.1%
2026-07-08 13:45 IST15MREDRED✓62.2%
2026-07-08 13:40 IST5MGREENRED✗55.9%
2026-07-08 13:35 IST5MGREENRED✗62.5%
2026-07-08 13:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗62.1%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 16:13:30 IST