terminal.guardrail.fund/markov

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Markov Predictor + $100 Sim | Live 2026-07-08 04:52:36 IST | Fetch: 75.2s | Auto-refresh 10s

BTC 5m Up
50¢
Grand Total
$655.00
Grand P&L
$-45.00
Daily P&L
$-68.50
HC Signals
0/4
Markov Portfolio
$355.00 ($-45.00)
Markov WR
28.6% (7 trades)
Inverted Portfolio
$300.00 (+$0.00)
Inverted WR
0.0% (0 trades)

Bankroll by Timeframe

$100/timeframe | Max bet: 5m=$10, 15m/1H/4H=$25 | Polymarket exits: 9¢ (stop) / 97¢ (take profit) | HC signals only

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateAccuracy
5M$93.00$-7.003133.3%53.1%
$93.00
15M$38.50$-61.50300.0%53.8%
$38.50
1H$100.00+$0.00000%0%
$100.00
4H$123.50+$23.5011100.0%50.0%
$123.50

INVERTED Strategy (auto-invert when accuracy <30%)

$100/timeframe on 5m, 15m, 1H | Flips Markov signal when it's consistently wrong

TFBankrollP&LTradesWinsWin RateMarkov AccStatus
5M INV$100.00+$0.00000%53.1% (192)WAITING
$100.00
15M INV$100.00+$0.00000%53.8% (80)WAITING
$100.00
1H INV$100.00+$0.00000%50% (0)WAITING
$100.00

Live Predictions

3-layer Markov: Simple(G/R) + Extended(dir+size) + Full(dir+size+vol) | Regime + Session + Multi-asset filtering

SKIP

5M

Open: 2026-07-08 04:50 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 04:55 IST
UP: 0.51¢ DOWN: 0.49¢ | 3m15s
RED
Conf: 54.6%
RANGING Session: OFF_HOURS Agree: 100.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 53.1% (102/192)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=98 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→G] G:47.9% R:52.1% n=48 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→G→G] G:45.5% R:54.5% n=22 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→G→G] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=9 w=7.2
Extended-1 [GB] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=98 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→GB] G:47.9% R:52.1% n=48 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→GB→GB] G:45.5% R:54.5% n=22 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=98 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→GBL] G:47.9% R:52.1% n=48 w=7.5
SKIP

15M

Open: 2026-07-08 04:45 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 05:00 IST
UP: 0.82¢ DOWN: 0.17¢ | 7m51s
RED
Conf: 53.1%
RANGING Session: OFF_HOURS Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 53.8% (43/80)
layers
Simple-1 [G] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=2.2
Simple-2 [R→G] G:52.1% R:47.9% n=48 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→R→G] G:42.1% R:57.9% n=19 w=6.8
Simple-4 [G→G→R→G] G:40.0% R:60.0% n=10 w=9.0
Simple-5 [G→G→G→R→G] G:50.0% R:50.0% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [GB] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=3.0
Extended-2 [RS→GB] G:52.1% R:47.9% n=48 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→RS→GB] G:42.1% R:57.9% n=19 w=9.0
Full-1 [GBL] G:48.4% R:51.6% n=95 w=3.8
Full-2 [RSL→GBL] G:52.1% R:47.9% n=48 w=7.5
SKIP

4H

Open: 2026-07-08 01:30 IST
Close: 2026-07-08 05:30 IST
UP: 0.21¢ DOWN: 0.79¢ | 37m25s
RED
Conf: 58.9%
RANGING Session: OFF_HOURS Agree: 70.0%
Multi: (%)
Accuracy: 50.0% (3/6)
layers
Simple-1 [R] G:55.4% R:44.6% n=101 w=2.2
Simple-2 [G→R] G:41.8% R:58.2% n=55 w=4.5
Simple-3 [G→G→R] G:39.1% R:60.9% n=23 w=6.8
Simple-4 [R→G→G→R] G:36.4% R:63.6% n=11 w=9.0
Simple-5 [R→R→G→G→R] G:33.3% R:66.7% n=6 w=9.0
Extended-1 [RS] G:55.4% R:44.6% n=101 w=3.0
Extended-2 [GB→RS] G:41.8% R:58.2% n=55 w=6.0
Extended-3 [GB→GB→RS] G:39.1% R:60.9% n=23 w=9.0
Full-1 [RSL] G:55.4% R:44.6% n=101 w=3.8
Full-2 [GBL→RSL] G:41.8% R:58.2% n=55 w=7.5

Markov Transition Tables

Order-2 | Current state = NOW

5M Now: G→G

State→G→RN
R→G51.0%49.0%49
R→R50.0%50.0%50
G→R49.0%51.0%49
G→G NOW47.9%52.1%48

15M Now: R→G

State→G→RN
R→R53.7%46.3%54
R→G NOW52.1%47.9%48
G→G43.5%56.5%46
G→R40.8%59.2%49

4H Now: G→R

State→G→RN
R→R71.1%28.9%45
R→G42.9%57.1%56
G→R NOW41.8%58.2%55
G→G41.5%58.5%41

Open Trades

TFStrategyDirectionBetConfOpenClose
4HMARKOVRED$25.0058.9%2026-07-08 01:30 IST2026-07-08 05:30 IST

Trade History

TimeTFStratTypeBetDirActualP&LResult
2026-07-08 01:00 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:50 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENGREEN+$9.40WIN
2026-07-08 00:45 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00REDGREEN-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:35 IST5MMARKOVMARKOV$10.00GREENRED-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-08 00:30 IST15MMARKOVMARKOV$25.00GREENRED-$20.50LOSS
2026-07-08 00:00 IST5MMARKOVMEAN_REVERT$10.00REDGREEN-$8.20LOSS
2026-07-07 21:30 IST4HMARKOVMARKOV_LATE$25.00REDRED+$23.50WIN

Prediction Log

TimeTFPredictedActualResultConf
2026-07-08 04:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.1%
2026-07-08 04:35 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.0%
2026-07-08 04:30 IST5MREDGREEN✗51.4%
2026-07-08 04:30 IST15MREDGREEN✗67.2%
2026-07-08 04:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.4%
2026-07-08 04:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓62.3%
2026-07-08 04:15 IST15MREDRED✓61.6%
2026-07-08 04:15 IST5MGREENRED✗52.6%
2026-07-08 04:10 IST5MREDRED✓56.5%
2026-07-08 04:05 IST5MREDGREEN✗50.1%
2026-07-08 04:00 IST5MGREENGREEN✓59.7%
2026-07-08 04:00 IST15MREDGREEN✗50.3%
2026-07-08 03:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.6%
2026-07-08 03:50 IST5MREDRED✓52.1%
2026-07-08 03:45 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.7%
2026-07-08 03:45 IST15MGREENGREEN✓53.2%
2026-07-08 03:40 IST5MREDGREEN✗53.2%
2026-07-08 03:35 IST5MGREENGREEN✓54.7%
2026-07-08 03:30 IST5MGREENRED✗50.4%
2026-07-08 03:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓51.1%
2026-07-08 03:25 IST5MGREENRED✗51.1%
2026-07-08 03:20 IST5MREDRED✓52.9%
2026-07-08 03:15 IST5MREDGREEN✗52.8%
2026-07-08 03:15 IST15MREDGREEN✗59.2%
2026-07-08 03:10 IST5MREDGREEN✗55.7%
2026-07-08 03:05 IST5MGREENRED✗50.9%
2026-07-08 03:00 IST5MREDRED✓56.3%
2026-07-08 03:00 IST15MGREENRED✗51.8%
2026-07-08 02:55 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.0%
2026-07-08 02:50 IST5MGREENRED✗53.7%
2026-07-08 02:45 IST5MGREENRED✗58.0%
2026-07-08 02:45 IST15MGREENRED✗54.6%
2026-07-08 02:40 IST5MGREENGREEN✓58.0%
2026-07-08 02:35 IST5MREDRED✓62.6%
2026-07-08 02:30 IST5MGREENGREEN✓51.6%
2026-07-08 02:30 IST15MGREENGREEN✓55.1%
2026-07-08 02:25 IST5MREDGREEN✗56.9%
2026-07-08 02:20 IST5MGREENGREEN✓57.0%
2026-07-08 02:15 IST5MREDRED✓52.5%
2026-07-08 02:15 IST15MREDGREEN✗51.2%
terminal.guardrail.fund/markov | Guardrail Data | Markov Chain + $100 Sim | Polymarket 9:30PM IST daily | 2026-07-08 04:52:36 IST